After months of sabre-rattling and insistence otherwise, the Ethiopian army appears set to officially remain in central and southern Somalia– with Mogadishu's grudging acceptance. Villa Somalia's hard deadline of 1 January 2025 for the withdrawal of the thousands of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops positioned across Gedo, Bay, Bakool, and Hiiraan came and went amidst ongoing disorder over the troop composition for the new African Union peacekeeping force. Where they will remain is proving contentious, however, with Villa Somalia pressuring Addis to withdraw its troops from Gedo in Jubaland, as well as Hiiraan in Hirshabelle.
The coming year is almost certain to be an exceedingly difficult one for Somalia, with the political turmoil and security deterioration of 2024 likely spilling over into 2025 with a vengeance. Driven by the centralising ambitions of the federal government, disputes over electoral models, the constitutional 'review' process, and federalism have surged this year, most recently resulting in open conflict in Ras Kamboni in Lower Juba between federal Gorgor soldiers and Jubaland troops. The widely shared perception the government has consolidated around a Damul Jadid, the Islamist faction linked to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and a Hawiye-Abgaal clan core has ostracised it from large parts of the population.
The past 11-and-a-half months have hardly been quiet for Ethiopia. The beginning of the year started with the bombshell Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, the geopolitical impact of which continues to reverberate. Insurgencies in Oromia and particularly Amhara have escalated further, compounding massive humanitarian emergencies and diminishing the government presence to a largely militarised one.
Last week, Turkey brokered a sudden accord between Somalia and Ethiopia, which many hope will, at least, reduce heightened regional tensions in the Horn. Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) and Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed Ali were invited to Ankara by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the third round of bilateral negotiations in 2024 but the first with both premiers. The Turkish strongman shuttled between the two and reportedly told his African allies they must not leave Erzurum, the meeting venue, without a deal.
On Wednesday morning, the dam broke in Ras Kamboni in Lower Juba as fighting erupted between federal Gorgor troops and Jubaland Daraawiish soldiers. The result was decisive, with hundreds of Somali National Army (SNA) soldiers either routed or captured in a humiliating end to Mogadishu's attempt to wrest power from Ahmed Madoobe in Jubaland. With Villa Somalia unable to remove the long-serving Federal Member State (FMS) leader either through subterfuge or force, now must be the inflexion point for the federal government.
On 12 December, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi 'Irro will be sworn in as the 6th President of Somaliland, following his comfortable victory a month ago. Dignitaries and representatives from several nations are attending the buoyant festivities in Hargeisa as Somalilanders usher in another peaceful and successful transfer of power. It has been a triumphant few weeks for Somaliland, pulling off a consequential, direct vote in the face of external interference. Looking ahead to the incoming administration, having enjoyed 64% of votes cast from across Somaliland's 6 regions, 'Irro and his followers may be tempted to believe they have a robust mandate for change.
In early December, the Oromia regional government led by Shimelis Abdisa and a splinter faction of the insurgent Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) inked a peace agreement. The ceremony, attended by senior federal and regional political and military officials, was heralded as a new chapter for Oromia, while President Shimelis Abdisa urged other armed groups to follow suit and lay down their weapons.
In late November, the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) informed the European Union's anti-piracy naval force, EUNAVFOR Atalanta, that pirates may have hijacked a Chinese-owned fishing vessel off the northern coast of Somalia.
There is a palpable sense of deja vu regarding the events unfolding in Jubaland today. The latest crisis– primarily between the federal government and the administration in Kismaayo headed by Ahmed Islam Madoobe – has more than a few echoes of the events of 2013 and 2019.
In an infamous episode in July 1897, in Al-Matama on the banks of the River Nile, a number of Sudanese women tied their bodies together and threw themselves into the water to escape sexual violence from Mahdist soldiers.
Somaliland's elections on 13 November and the weeks since have displayed the maturity and stability of its democracy once again.
On 21 November, the next phase of the disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) of 75,000 Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) soldiers commenced in Mekelle. Over two years have passed since the signing of the Pretoria and Nairobi agreements, with the DDR process intended as one of their central elements, but federally-driven progress to date has been slow.
The rupturing of the Jubaland-federal relations was a long time coming, part of the broader political and constitutional crises that have pushed Somalia's settlement to a near-breaking point in recent months.
In April 2024, the US Department of State's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor released its annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. Its section on Somalia begins, "There were no significant changes in the human rights situation in Somalia during the year."
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