For decades, much of Northern Kenya has wrestled with cyclical violence rooted in pastoralist competition over livestock and grazing land. But what was once culturally regulated pastoralist raiding has gradually devolved into a militarised, profit-driven enterprise. Intersecting with both food security and climate change, banditry and cattle rustling are intensifying, with an August 2024 report by the National Crime Research Centre documenting a sharp rise in the past year, resulting in over 300 fatalities and many thousands more displaced or impoverished. The government's attempts to stifle the violence have further struggled in the face of Kenya's cost-of-living crisis, as well as the participation of corrupt, vested political interests in Nairobi.
Over the weekend, Mahad Salad was returned to head up Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). After a 14-month break, the Egyptian-trained former spy chief has returned to the position he held between August 2022 and April 2024. The restoration of Salad, who belongs to the Hawiye/ Habar Gidir/ Ayr sub-clan, comes amid twin threats to Villa Somalia-- the serpentine encroachment of Al-Shabaab on Mogadishu and the massing of political opposition in the capital. Historically lenient towards the jihadist group, Salad is unlikely to afford the same generosity to the government's opposition as the head of NISA, as his predecessor did. Simultaneously, the removal of Abdullahi Mohamed Ali 'Sanbaloolshe,' could seriously undermine the ongoing ma'awiisley operations by his Hawaadle sub-clan against Al-Shabaab in Hiiraan, one of the few forces leading the frontline resistance.
UNMISS Renewed As Kiir's Offensive Continues On 8 May, the UN Security Council voted to extend the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) for another yea...
Across the Borderlands: Migration Along the Eastern Route Migrants transiting out of the Horn of Africa have historically moved through three distinc...
The Age of Drones Last week, for the first time, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) conducted several drone strikes in Port Sudan on the Red Sea, penetra...
Sudan's Islamist Resurgence Shapes a Fractured War Since last September, when the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched its campaign to oust the Rapid...
For a government whose slogan was "not one inch" just a few months ago, it might have been more apt to have adopted "not that inch." On 22 April, last year's secret bilateral Somalia-Türkiye oil and gas deal emerged after its submission to the Turkish parliament, revealing that Mogadishu had ceded immense potential profits and sovereignty for pennies. Signed during the geopolitical fallout of the Somaliland-Ethiopia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and harried through Somalia's parliament, the agreement points to further political and economic vandalism by the current federal administration and its desire to monopolise Somalia's sovereign rents and national resources. While insisting that Addis would have "not one inch" of Somali coastal territory, Mogadishu has offered every centimetre of the country to foreign powers.
Kenya’s Haiti Mission Stalls Amid Deepening Crisis On Monday, Kenya's National Security Advisor Monica Juma addressed the UN Security Cou...
Murder in Laas Aanood: SSC-Khaatumo admits Al-Shabaab presence Al-Shabaab has reared its head once again in the town of Laas Aanood in the Sool region. On 20 April, Farah Aidid Jama 'Bariis'– an Ethiopian security expert with the Garowe consulate in Puntland– was abducted, tortured, and murdered before his body was dumped the following day in the Gooja'ade valley near Laas Aanood. For the first time, SSC-Khaatumo officials have acknowledged the presence of Al-Shabaab units within the town, having strenuously denied it for over two years. And while details over Bariis's murder remain murky, it comes at an awkward moment for the riven administration, coming so shortly after the much-heralded visit of Somali PM Hamza Abdi Barre to Laas Aanood.
Ethiopia’s Cycle of Violence Spins On In October 2023, in its final report, the UN's International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) urged the international community to redouble its efforts to protect civilians and hold perpetrators "accountable" for the "staggering" human rights abuses that had been carried out in Ethiopia. Eighteen months later, these calls have gone entirely unheeded, while the Commission's warning that there is "no deterrence for future atrocity crimes" has borne fruit in a number of conflict-riddled regions of the country. It was a severe error to bow to pressure for the ICHREE to close prematurely-- leaving it unable to form a determination on the question of genocide in Tigray-- and one that has let down past and future victims of breaches of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) in Ethiopia
Two Years of War in Sudan Tuesday marked two years since war erupted in Khartoum between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid S...
Fiddling While Middle Shabelle Burns On Tuesday in Mogadishu, hundreds of people, mostly students, were bussed into Shangani to line up and obtain voter ID cards in a highly choreographed affair. Among the first in line was the mayor of Mogadishu, participating in a stunt that Villa Somalia continues to frame as the next step to achieving the first national one-person, one-vote (OPOV) elections since 1967. But rather than realising the long-thwarted democratic aspirations of the Somali people, it is simply another damaging spectacle, just as PM Hamza Barre's trip to Laas Aanood was, that further diminishes the chance of any positive outcome from the upcoming 'national dialogue' process. With Al-Shabaab having seized Adan Yabaal in Middle Shabelle and a host of other strategic locations this morning, Villa Somalia is fiddling while Rome burns.
ONLF Eyes Armed Struggle as Peace Falters Addis's national strategy of divide and conquer towards legitimate political opposition is pushing the Somali Regional State (SRS) to the brink of renewed conflict. Months of escalating tensions between the SRS administration led by Mustafa Mohammed Omar 'Agjar' and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) have taken another dangerous turn in recent days. Yet another attempt to remove the ONLF Chairman Abdirahman Maaday underhandedly appears to have definitively pushed the former insurgents towards a return to armed mobilisation, imperilling nearly 7 years of fragile peace in the SRS.
Painting Disputed Laas Anood 'Blue' Over the weekend, Somalia's PM Hamza Abdi Barre travelled to the disputed town of Laas Anood in the Sool region in what was billed as a 'historic' visit by Mogadishu and nationalist media-- the first by a sitting PM to the municipality in decades. Dozens of federal lawmakers and senior government ministers joined Barre on the highly choreographed visit, which had been trailed weeks in advance to the delight of hardline unionists and displeasure from Puntland and Somaliland.
Al-Shabaab at the Nexus of Terrorism and Crime The nexus between terrorism and criminal activity has always been hazy. Criminal groups have long deployed violence for a litany of reasons, while at times wielding 'terrorist' tactics to intimidate and coerce. In the late 1980s, for instance, the Colombian Medellin Cartel, headed by the notorious narcotrafficker Pablo Escobar, famously bombed an Avianca passenger jet, killing 107 passengers and crew, as well as a government building in Bogota, in which 57 people were killed and more than 2,200 injured.
Collateral Damage in Trump's Tariff War The death of globalisation appears to be on hold-- for now. In an abrupt volte-face yesterday, US President D...
No More Blank Cheques Last Friday, the head of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), General Michael Langley, testifying to the US Senate Armed Services Committee, confirmed that Islamic State-Somalia (ISS) had relocated its global command hub to Puntland. Emphasising how ISS was developing its "global footprint" from Somalia, he warned that if left unchecked, the jihadist group could pose direct threats to US national security. This acknowledgement by the head of AFRICOM was a mark of just how consequential ISS, led by Emir Abdulkadir Mumim, has become within Daesh's architecture. And while perhaps bad news for the counter-terror fight in Africa, Langley's statement on ISS and the subsequent offers a glimmer of hope for an embattled Mogadishu, which fears that the new American administration may be inclined to turn its back on Somalia.
The 'Original Sin' of the Pretoria agreement In late October 2022, Tigrayan and Ethiopian federal representatives met in Pretoria, South Africa, under the auspices of the African Union, amidst the raging Tigray war. Back-door US diplomacy in Djibouti and the Seychelles in mid-2022 had failed to produce anything of note, and brutal fighting had renewed in late August. Calculating they could no longer bear such devastating human costs—costs Addis and Asmara seemed willing to absorb—the Tigrayan delegation arrived in Pretoria ready to make peace and reluctantly accepted terms far from ideal.
Cheap Talk: No Signs of National Unity A distinct lack of urgency surrounds Somalia's supposed 'emergency national dialogue.' On the eve of Eid, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) reluctantly announced a national dialogue process in the face of collapsing security across the Shabelles and the growing threat to Mogadishu from Al-Shabaab. The Hawiye national opposition, Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe and others have cautiously welcomed the offer, though they have sought greater clarity on a number of points, not least the scope of discussions. In the week since the announcement, however, Villa Somalia seems to have reverted to 'business as usual', exhibiting the same myopic and unilateral behaviour that precipitated the country's current crisis.
Sheegow, the Bantu, and the cost of injustice In August 2023, government forces forcibly arrested General Sheegow Ahmed Ali, the only senior government officer who hailed from the Jareer Weyne minority, at his home in Mogadishu. Accusing Sheegow of operating a militia, four people were killed in the ensuing violence between security forces and his bodyguards, while over a dozen were also injured. The separate treatment of the popular leader proved highly controversial amongst the long-ostracised Jareer Weyne, triggering protests in both the capital and Beledweyne. Nevertheless, Sheegow was sentenced to 10 years in prison by a military court that November and has remained in jail since. But with Al-Shabaab sweeping across Lower and Middle Shabelle in recent weeks and reports of Sheegow's ill health, the importance of the former official could be returning to the fore.